Much has been made of the potential impact of the US elections on currencies such as MXN and CAD. However, the US elections have the potential to also be a major driver for CNY in the context of broader US -China trade relations. Should Democratic candidate Clinton win the Presidency, this is likely to maintain...

The post How Would A Trump Presidency Affect USDCNY? appeared first on Forex Crunch.

Idea of the Day For markets at least, the strength of the euro was the main surprise going into the end of last year. Some of this strength was based on temporary factors related to year end and balance sheet dressing on the part of European banks. Money market rates moved substantially higher as a...

The post The Euro starts 2014 with a bang appeared first on Forex Crunch.

In an interview I gave to FXStreet, we discussed the implications of the Non-Farm Payrolls report on a potential rate hike in September. We continued with discussing  the yen, the yuan, oil and the upcoming market-moving  meetings. You can read the interview in its original publication  or here below: After the so-so US Employment report,...

The post Fed has limited time to explicitly hint a hike appeared first on Forex Crunch.

It was a relatively calm end to the week in FX markets last week, but this was against the backdrop of a structural change in sentiment towards the dollar after the Fed meeting and their re-assessment of the longer-term prospects for the economy and rates. In essence though, they are still playing catch-up with the...

The post Awaiting inflation data from the UK and Japan appeared first on Forex Crunch.

The more interesting jobs report today could be the one in Canada rather than the US. We’ve just seen a US rate hike, the Fed has stressed over and over again that further moves will be gradual, so it will take a very strong release for expectations to build for a move at the end...

The post All eyes on US and Canadian Jobs report appeared first on Forex Crunch.

It feels as if the past few years we’ve been obsessing about over-arching themes, such as Greece, Fed tapering and then tightening. This year I think will be a lot more schizophrenic and this week has already felt like a microcosm of how the year could pan out. We’ve obsessed about China, Saudi/Iran relations, South...

The post China stock crash flares up markret volatility appeared first on Forex Crunch.

The post Yen surges against other currencies appeared first on Forex Crunch.

Currently markets feel like a newly married couple, trying to find their way in a newly anointed relationship. That new world is one of higher interest rates in the US, as much anticipated and expected the move was. The situation is probably not helped by declining liquidity into the festive period, which is going to...

The post Adapting to higher rates appeared first on Forex Crunch.

The historical significance of the Fed rate hike last night was far more than its market impact, where the dollar was modestly firmer after the initial volatility, with even these modest gains starting to be given back against the yen. The FOMC statement and Yellen’s open remarks at the press conference contained no less than...

The post Fed raises rates appeared first on Forex Crunch.

So we finally arrive at what is the most anticipated Fed meeting in modern times, with what is likely to be the first interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve in nearly 10 years. Indeed, the expectation is so strong and the Fed has done so much to prepare markets for the eventuality that...

The post Fed meeting day appeared first on Forex Crunch.