The dollar weakened as US interest rate expectations dropped while Treasury yields fell. The euro saw a 0.1% increase in early Asian trade. The probability of another Fed rate hike this year fell to approximately 26% on Monday. The EUR/USD price analysis is bullish as the dollar weakened. US interest rate expectations dropped, leading to...

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The message that ECB president Mario Draghi sent was very calm and puts faith in temporary factors. Energy and food prices, austerity and also the bank stress tests are all to blame for low inflation, which he doesn’t see as materializing to outfight deflation. However, there is one factor that wasn’t mentioned in the press...

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Financial markets are calm this morning on what is likely to be a quiet day for investors with the US, among others, observing the Columbus bank holiday and Japan also enjoying a bank holiday. As a result the economic calendar is very thin with nothing noteworthy to be released but attention should be given to...

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Excellent jobs report by ADP: no less than 250K private  sector jobs were gained in the US in December. The figure for November was only slightly revised down from 190K to 185K. All in all, the gain in jobs is good news on its own and also a big beat on expectations. Most of these...

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USD Perspective Into the close of last year price action was functioning on the dynamic of expectations of euro zone political turmoil weighing on EUR and “Trump-flation” supporting USD. Fast forward four months and we have seen a stark break down in this dynamic and a reversal in direction for EURUSD. Donald Trump’s election was...

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The US gained 113,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate stands at 6.6% – little changed from the previous month. The US Non-Farm Payrolls report was expected to show a gain of around 185K in the first month of 2014 after an initial report about 74K for December. Even though significant revisions were expected, there...

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The recent US Non-Farm Payrolls showed a 217K gain in jobs in May — expectations were around 214K jobs. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%, while it was predicted to inch up to  6.4%. This report showed numbers, which were  inline with market expectations and thus the report currently has  a modest impact  on...

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A very strong  US jobs report: A gain of 271K.  Wages grew at a faster rate. It’s mostly  positive albeit  with  little upward revisions — an upside of 12K. The  unemployment rate slid to  5%. Participation is at 62.4% — unchanged. Y/y wages are at 2.5% — the fastest pace since July 2009.   USD...

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Lower than expected data in the US: only 156K jobs were gained and wages went up by 0.1%, lower than expected on both fronts.The participation rate was unchanged at 62.9%. Wages y/y are still at an annual pace of 2.5%. Overall, not a great report on both wages and headline job growth.   The US...

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